Operations Research for Risk Management in Strategic Foresight

Martin Zsifkovits, Silja Meyer-Nieberg, Stefan Pickl


Detecting and identifying future risks is a major issue for public decision makers, especially in the field of the military defence. Decision makers need to identify threats to be able to react to them adequately and so reduce risks. Therefore, we established a general risk management support guideline for public decision makers with a focus on national security. The framework aims for identifying future risks, analysing and evaluating them, so that concrete actions can be set that tackle the potential threat. The risk management framework is based on the core process of the ISO3100 risk management norm and guides the decision maker stepwise through the complex process of forecasting. Therefore we are combining several available techniques and tools to get an overall picture of several scenarios. The focus is thereby put on national security applications of the risk management process.   


Country Risk Analysis, risk management; operations research

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