Early Warning – Some Recent Developments

Olaf Neussner

Abstract


Recent advances in early warning have been observed in science and technology as well as the overall effectiveness of end-to-end early warning systems.

The accuracy in predicting earthquakes is slowly increasing, but it is still far from being applicable to routine early warning systems. Tests of landslide warning systems based on motion sensors of slopes are progressing and might be used more widespread in the coming years.

Fast communication is not a real issue for today’s technology, but spreading alert information quickly to large communities without access to modern communication equipment remains a problem. However, some experiences of locally anchored early warning systems point to higher effectiveness if they are managed decentralized within communities.

Though EWS have to be adjusted to local circumstances the growing number of temporary visitors (e.g. migrants, tourists) in the world, require some type of international standard easily understood by everyone. While the wording may be local plus internationally used languages (e.g. English), signs/icons should follow international conventions. 


Keywords


early warning systems; earthquakes, river floods, storm surge, storm, innovations in science and technology

Full Text:

PDF HTML

References


Alozie, J. et al. (2014): The Seasonal Rainfall Prediction: Early Warning Tool for Disaster Risk Reduction in Nigeria, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Extended Abstracts, 44

Asgary, A. et al. (2014): Simulating Disaster Warning and Alerting Effectiveness, an Agent Based Approach, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Programme & Short Abstracts, 109

Donovan, T. (2014): Working together to deliver sustainable development through weather and climate services, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Extended Abstracts, 218

Fernandez de Arroyabe, P. (2014): Atmospheric determinants of health risks and customized early warning systems, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Extended Abstracts, 247

Hernando, H. et al. (2013): Community involvement and local flood early warning with low-tech approaches for small rivers in the Philippines, Presentation at the World Bank workshop Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience in Seoul, Korea (http://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/%28SESSION_4%29_Hilton_Hernando_%28PAGASA%29%20_Olaf_Neussner_%28GIZ%29.pdf) (15 Oct 2014)

GIZ (2012): Local Flood Early Warning Systems, Manila, 54 pages (http://www.preventionweb.net/files/29230_29230gizphilippineslocalfloodearlyw.pdf) (16 Oct 2014)

Neussner, O. (2012): Community participation in local flood early warning systems based on low-technology approaches in the Philippines, in: Government of Germany: Experiences in Disaster Risk Management within the German Development Cooperation (Special Joint G20 Publication for DRM), 153-155 (http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/sites/gfdrr.org/files/Chapter_9-Germany-Experiences_in_Disaster_Risk_Management_within_the_German_Development_Cooperation_0.pdf) (17 Oct 2014)

Neussner, O. (2014): Assessment of Early Warning Efforts in Leyte for Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda, March 2014, 64 pages (http://www.preventionweb.net/files/36860_36860gizassessmentofearlywarningyol.pdf) (18 Oct 2014)

Ouzounov, D. et al. (2014): Testing new methodologies for alerting large earthquakes: An integrated geo space approach and ground observations, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Programme & Short Abstracts, 168

Perminov, A.N. et al. (2014): Methodology of Short-term Powerful Earthquakes Forecasting and Warnings Through the Using of Space-ground Monitoring Data: Russian Approach, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Programme & Short Abstracts, 170

Pulinets, S. et al.: Novel conception of short-term earthquake forecast based on Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LIAC) model, IDRC, Chengdu, http://idrc.info/fileadmin/user_upload/idrc/former_conferences/idrc2009/presentations/Pulinets_Sergey_Ouzounov_Dimitar_IDRC_Chengdu_2009.pdf, 3 (17 Oct 2014)

Pulinets, S., et al. (2014): Physical background for multiparameter approach in earthquake precursors monitoring, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Programme & Short Abstracts, 175

The Sphere Project (2004): Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response, Geneva, 344pages

Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science (2014): Initial Report of the IRIDeS Fact-finding missions to Philippines, (http://irides.tohoku.ac.jp/media/files/IRIDeS_Report_Haiyan_20140527.pdf) (16 Oct 2014)

UNISDR (2006): Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checklist, Third International Conference on Early Warning, March 2006, 13 pages

Usländer, T. (2014): The trend towards the Internet of Things: what does it help in Disaster and Risk Management?, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Extended Abstracts, 729