Mastering Complexity and Risks in Modern Infrastructures: a Paradigm Shift

Roberto Filippini

Abstract


Modern infrastructures are exposed to risks of difficult estimation. One reason is the unique complexity of this class of systems for which the risk assessment frameworks are not easy to apply: in many cases, they are inadequate to meet the needs of decision makers, and overall they cannot estimate if our societies are predictably secure and safe. This paper addresses these limitations and proposes a paradigm shift from a risk-centred to a resilient-centred approach. Arguments in favour of the proposal are discussed by considering the features of modern infrastructures, such as interdependencies, cascading and escalading failures, and emerging behaviours.


Keywords


Vulnerability, risk, resilience, critical infrastructures, interdependencies

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