Dynamical Diagnosis and Solutions for Resilient Natural and Social Systems

Didier Sornette, Tatyana Kovalenko

Abstract


The concept of resilience embodies the quest towards the ability to sustain shocks, to suffer from these shocks as little as possible, for the shortest time possible, and to recover with the full functionalities that existed before the perturbation. We propose an operation definition of resilience, seeing it as a measure of stress that is complementary to the risk measures. Emphasis is put on the distinction between stressors (the forces acting on the system) and stress (the internal reaction of the system to the stressors). This allows us to elaborate a classification of stress measures and of the possible responses to stressors. We emphasize the need for characterizing the goals of a given system, from which the process of resilience build-up can be defined. Distinguishing between exogenous versus endogenous sources of stress allows one to define the corresponding appropriate responses. The main ingredients towards resilience include (1) the need for continuous multi-variable measurement and diagnosis of endogenous instabilities, (2) diversification and heterogeneity, (3) decoupling, (4) incentives and motivations, and (5) last but not least the (obvious) role of individual strengths. Propositions for individual training towards resilience are articulated. The concept of “crisis flight simulators†is introduced to address the intrinsic human cognitive biases underlying the logic of failures and the illusion of control, based on the premise that it is only by “living†through scenarios and experiencing them that decision makers make progress. We also introduce the “time@risk†framework, whose goal is to provide continuous predictive updates on possible scenarios and their probabilistic weights, so that a culture of preparedness and adaptation be promoted. These concepts are presented towards building up personal resilience, resilient societies and resilient financial systems.



Keywords


stress, risk, resilience, simulator, endogenous, prediction

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References


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