Formulation of a Natural Risk Management Plan to San Antonio Del Tequendama, Cundinamarca - Colombia

MONTIÉN TIQUE, Wilmer Fabiána and PEÑA GUZMÁN, Carlos Andrésb

a Santo Tomás University, Bogotá, Colombia. wilmermontien@usantotomas.edu.co b Manuela Beltrán University, Bogotá, Colombia. carlos.guzman@docenmtes.umb.edu.co

Abstract — The present work is focused in formulate a Natural Risk Management Plan to San Antonio del Tequendama, Cundinamarca - Colombia through the implementation of the “Municipal Plan for Disaster Risk Management (MPDRM)” Methodology, which was developed by the “National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD)” in 2012, its structure is based in two components: Risk Scenarios General Characterization and a Programmatic component. According that, the first was made a diagnostic ,this for Identification Risk Scenarios, however, during the bibliography review, it evidenced that the information presented different time scales, therefore it was made an Identification Risk Scenarios by Landslides, Floods and Earthquakes, using the “Guide for the Preparation of Land Use Plan” Methodology developed by “Agustín Codazzi Geographic Institute (IGAC)”.

After that, The MPDRM Methodology establishes that it must prioritize the Risk Scenarios by the evaluator criteria, nevertheless, it was made a technical process to have a good support in the priorization using the SEI SRE (Software Engineering Institute-Software Risk Evaluation) methodology (specifically in the risk priorization component) developed by the United States, and a probabilistic risk evaluation, where involved the use of CAPRA GIS and @Risk Softwares, whose results showed that the landslides risk scenario was the most critic, followed by the flood and earthquake scenarios. After that, it was made the risk scenarios characterization, whose results showed that deforestation and rainfall were the principal causes, moreover some solutions were formulated.

The second component focused in the programs and actions formulation respect to the risk scenarios. Finally a cost-benefit analysis was made, where the conclusion was that the inversion cost in risk mitigation was similar to the cost of the programs and actions formulated. Furthermore, it was made a multicriteria analysis using M-MACBETH Software with the objective to estimate the benefits and limitations of the MPDRM Methodology.

Keywords — Natural Risk Management Plan, Identification risk scenarios, Probabilistic risk evaluation, multicriteria analysis

1 Introduction

The climate change in Colombia is one of the biggest challenges that is facing in the present century (United Nations Development Programme, 2010) due to threat over the people (especially in the poor populations) and the development process of the country, besides, during the last years Colombia has been suffer many “winter waves” (2010-2011) especially associated by “La Niña”, this phenomenon was an strongest of the last 50 years until now (National Geographic, 2013), as consequence, the country suffered many disasters by floods and landslides (Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, 2010) affected 28 of the 32 departments of Colombia, where Cundinamarca was one of the most affected, specifically over these municipalities: Chía, Cota, Útica and San Antonio del Tequendama (Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, 2000).

Unlike the other cities, San Antonio del Tequendama has high risk areas by landslides, floods and earthquakes (Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, 2000), according to a report in 2008 by National Prevention and Disaster Direction institute , in San Antonio del Tequendama has been 236 emergencies until now , 84 of them were by floods and the other ones were by landslides (Dirección Nacional de Prevención y Atención de Desastres, 2012), affected more than 300 families, near to 725 people affected and 225 homes destroyed (Registro Único de Damnificados, 2012). Due to those events, The Mayor of San Antonio del Tequendama has been implemented some projects to mitigate the impact of those risk scenarios, where its inversion cost has reached $2.140 million dollars, however, they have not been enough, because there are only 3 projects implemented in Prevention and Disaster Sector, like adequacy buildings walls and slopes stabilization (Concejo municipal de San Antonio del Tequendama, 2012), postponing another inversions that could be implemented in prospective and preventive actions like municipal risk management plan and emergency response strategies (Corporación Autónoma Regional de Cundinamarca, 1991).

According that, the municipality seeks to fulfill the need to have fewer risk disaster situations and possible magnitude lower (Ingeniería y Geotécnia Ltda Ingenieros Consultores, 1995), and more effective risk management by floods, landslides and earthquakes scenarios too. For this reason is necessary to formulate strategies for risk management (Concejo municipal de San Antonio del Tequendama, 2012).

The Municipal Plan for Disaster Risk Management (MPDRM) is a planning instrument that prioritize, execute and implement actions focused in risk management process (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres- UNGRD, 2012), which was developed by the UNGRD in 2012 (Ministerio de Interior y de Justicia, 2012), its structure is divided in two components: (i) Risk General characterization and (ii) Programmatic component. According that, the first was made a diagnostic, this for Identification Risk Scenarios and the second focused in the programs and actions formulation respect to the risk scenarios (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012). This paper presents a formulation of the MPDRM to San Antonio del Tequendama for landslides, floods and earthquakes, proposing solutions for mitigation and preventive the risk over municipality and evaluates the MPDRM through multicriteria analysis.

2 Natural Risk Management Plan to San Antonio Del Tequendama, Cundinamarca - Colombia

2.1 Risk Scenarios General Characterization

2.1.1 Municipality diagnostic

San Antonio del Tequendama is located in the Cundinamarca department, his height of 2700 m, with an area of 82 km2, where a big part of the territory is rural, represented by its 23 communities (60 km2) and the rest is represented by 4 urban center populations (20 km2) (figure 1). The current population is 13885 people, where 70% of the population is working in agriculture activities and the other 30% is dedicating to the poultry and pork sector and other activities. Geologically the municipality has two faults: Bituima fault (in the west) and Corraleja-Zaragoza fault (in the east), moreover peaks and ridges characterize their physiographic, where 10% of the territory is flat, 25 % hilly and 65% rugged. Finally, the territory presents a bimodal annual rainfall regime with an average rainfall of 1500 mm and an average temperature of 20 °C (Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, 2012).

Figure 1: San Antonio del Tequendama Municipality delimitation.

2.1.2 Identification and priorization of the risk scenarios

The methodology establishes that this component must be define using secondary information supported by all national risk institutes like the UNGRD, however, after made a review of the bibliography, it evidenced that this one presented different timescales, then a technique process was implemented using the “Guide for the Preparation of Land Use Plan” methodology developed by IGAC, which involved the identification of high risk zones, considering cartographic maps at different scales (1:10000, 1:5000) and the parameters related to slope and erosion, defined in the methodology, for example, with greater slope, greater susceptibility of landslides (figure 2). Nevertheless, this process only applied for landslides scenario, the other ones be worked with mapping (Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi-IGAC, 1993).

According with the parameters defined by the IGAC methodology and the process that involved geoprocessing and cartographic overlay maps (natural hazard maps on public infrastructure maps), it could get the maps showed below, where, by their attributes (color legend), it could be possible do the identification of high risk areas in the 3 scenarios.

Due to risk is defined as the combination between two elements: threat and vulnerability, the first one is related to the probability of occurrence of an event (fire, flood) and the second one, focused in the degree of resistance or set of elements against the occurrence of an event like a natural hazard of a given magnitude, reflecting how exposed is a community facing one or more threats, (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012).

Figure 2: Landslides related to slope (upper left), landslides related to the erosion degree (upper right), flooding potential areas (lower left) and earthquakes potential areas (lower right).

Therefore, the municipality has 1529 houses (85% rural and 15% urban) exposed against landslides, 375 homes (90% rural and 10% urban) exposed by floods and 1158 households (60% rural and 40% urban) exposed by earthquakes, the results showed that 80% (12200 people approximately) of the Municipality population are vulnerable to the 3 risk scenarios evaluated (landslides, floods and earthquakes), where the rural ones are the most vulnerable followed by urban population centers. Once they were identified, it continues with the MPDRM methodology, which establish it must prioritize the risk scenarios by the author criteria, nevertheless, it was made a technical process to have a good support in the priorization in order to have a better argument at the moment of characterize them (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012).

2.1.3 Risk scenarios evaluation

Unfortunately in Colombia there is not a standard methodology focused in prioritize natural risk scenarios, for this reason, it was review five methodologies developed by several institutes of the United States like Software Engineering Institute, then it reviewed advantages, disadvantages, features and approach by each one, where the SEI SRE (Software Engineering Institute – Software Risk Evaluation) methodology developed by the institute mentioned (Department of Energy Quality Managers, 2000), was the only one who adjusted, nonetheless, it is important to clarify that only the “Risk Scenarios Priorization” component of this methodology was extracted to this chapter, which is based in a building matrix, where a risk level is defined using two elements: Frequency and Severity (Stern , 2011).

The SEI SRE methodology establish for the frequency estimation that it must review the events historical data of the risk scenario to analyze, then it must to do a probabilistic analysis using probabilistic distributions with its goodness of fit by Chi squared test (Department of Energy Quality Managers, 2000), as a result, Poisson distribution was the one who adjusted to the events historical data behavior, whose result showed there is more probability that presents more than two disaster situations per year by landslides and flooding than two or only one event, categorized as: Landslides (Common), floods (Probable) and earthquakes (Casual) according to the parameters defined in the SEI SRE methodology.

The severity estimation involved a combination between the qualitative method of the SEI SRE methodology with a probabilistic risk analysis using CAPRA GIS and @RISK softwares, where physical and human vulnerability functions were obtained, the first one is associated to the damage that could be expected of an asset in dependence of a natural hazard situation, measured in Mean Damage Radio (MDR) or economic value required to rebuild the while affected, depending of the natural hazard intensity, for example “meters deep”, the second one is associated to the involvement occupants level of a building on terms of the expected number of victims with respect to the natural hazard intensity too (Consorcio de Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales (ERN) América Latina, 2011).

The figure 3 (vulnerability function by floods in terms of the kind of infrastructure: Grouting with only one floor (M1) with its standard deviation) was generate using CAPRA GIS Software by their ERN Vulnerability mode, considering as primary information the main kind of infrastructure in the municipality, which was unreinforced masonry walls with concrete slabs armed low and medium (Consultores, INGETEC Subestación Paraíso, 2013). Also an analysis of severity was made using Monte Carlo simulation through @RISK software (PALISADE Corporation, 2013), which took into account multiple severity scenarios for each risk, as a result the landslide scenario was the most critical because its MDR reached high cost around $1880 billion dollars, followed by earthquakes scenario (MDR of $370 billion dollars) and floods (MDR of $3 billion dollars).

Figure 3: Vulnerability function by flood scenario.

The severity results showed: Landslides (Critical), earthquakes (Critical) and floods (serious), took into account the parameters defined in the SEI SRE methodology. With the frequency and severity results for each risk scenario, it continued to define the risk level based in the intersection of the two elements in the matrix establish by the SEI SRE methodology. The final results of the priorization indicated: 1. Landslides risk scenario 2. Flood risk scenario and 3. Earthquakes risk scenario.

2.1.4 Risk scenarios characterization

Once prioritized risk scenarios in a technical way, it continued with the MPDRM methodology, where all the risk scenarios were characterized, determining historical background, threatening phenomenon description, its causes, vulnerable populations and a future analysis, which includes aspects like measures for risk reduce, this information was consolidated in the formats established by the MPDRM methodology (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012), as a result it obtained:

Landslides risk scenario:

The most important aspects in this scenario were the main causes which human activities such as deforestation for agriculture and livestock were the principal ones (Henao, 2009), as well as buildings homes in high risk areas, also the bimodal annual regime in the territory (Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, 2012) that significantly influences in soil properties (Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi-IGAC, 1993). Among the actions that were formulated to mitigate and prevent the risk included:

  • Monitoring in building houses located in high risk areas.
  • Implementation of early warning systems in the municipality.
  • Optimization and management in pipeline water resource system.
  • Preparation of press bulletins (web, radio and television) to keep people informed.
  • Updating landslide hazard maps.
  • Relocation activities to families in high risk areas.
  • Monitoring programs to prevent deforestation and the suitability of vegetation areas for agriculture and ranching.
  • Update the Land of Use Plan, building codes among others.
  • Execution of drainage and infiltration (avoiding excess pressure and erosion) as surface coatings as well as the subsurface drainage waters as filters in trenches, vertical wells and draining beds.
  • Containing soils structures, reforestation in some areas (infiltration increasing).
  • Rocks containing structures and stuffed counterweight (Departamento Nacional de Planeación-DNP, 2005).

Floods risk scenario:

This scenario was similar to the previous one, because the human activities mentioned were the same main causes of this scenarios, but there are two more, one of them is the settle of many people along the hillside of the Bogotá River, due to the kind of land use in those areas for intensive agricultural uses (Planeación Ecológica Ltda- Ecoforest Ltda, 2012) as well as the municipality vocation that is mostly agricultural. Among the actions formulated were:

  • Strengthening the monitoring of hydrometeorological stations in the territory, in order to have a complete database for further analysis (databases without missing values for very long periods of time).
  • Large channels either dredging or rectifying margins, removing sediment that hinders the flow of streams and river channel of the Bogota River.
  • Levees, generating a barrier that would contain an increasing, either longitudinal or transversal.
  • Preparation of press bulletins (web, radio and television) to keep people informed.
  • Update the Land of Use Plan, building codes among others.
  • Updating floods hazard maps.
  • Cross works as gabion dikes (Departamento Nacional de Planeación-DNP, 2005).

Earthquakes risk scenario:

Unlike the previous scenarios, this one happens more by natural causes than anthropic ones, due to the earth dynamic processes (Chaux, 1998), as well as the presence of the two active geological faults, but until now, there have not been emergencies situations for this phenomenon, however as actions formulated were:

  • Execution of drills, evacuations and related activities to reduce the vulnerability of the population.
  • Set points for the affected community shelter in case of a critical situation.
  • Establish points of contact between the communities.
  • Forming emergency brigades to help provide proper care to affected people in an emergency.
  • Structural reinforcement measures in houses exposed and management in future constructions in the municipality under Earthquake Resistant Standard 2010 (Departamento Nacional de Planeación-DNP, 2005).

2.2 Programmatic component

This second component focused on developing programs and improvement actions against the risk scenarios analyzed, sectored into three components that are part in risk management: Risk knowledge, Risk reduction and Disaster management (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012), each one has associated a set of actions and programs, whose information was consolidated in formats established by the MPDRM methodology, which aspects like indicators, target population, program costs and the expected results were indicated (Tables 1 and 2). For example:

Table 1: Programs format to Landslide risk sceneario.
PROGRAM 1. RISK KNOWLEDGE
1.1 Socializing with the community belonging to high risk areas on all relevant information of the identified risk.
1.2 Updated and generation of technical studies and risk maps.
PROGRAM 2. RISK REDUCTION
2.1 Formulation of improvement actions on the main risk causes.
PROGRAM 3. DISASTER MANAGEMENT
3.1 Evaluation of structural and non-structural alternatives.

Table 2: Actions format to Landslide risk sceneario.
Evaluation of structural and non-structural alternatives.
1. OBJECTIVES
Assess structural and non-structural alternatives.
2. DESCRIPTION OF THE ACTION
From the formulation of alternative solutions to landslides risk scenario within the characterization component, assess which would be the most appropriate to implement in the main critical areas, in order to reduce the potential risk and manage disaster if any event occurs for this phenomenon.
Risk scenario which the action is involved: Disaster management
3. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ACTION
Target population: 6116 people.
Place of action: Mainly in San José, Chicaque La Rápida, Vancouver, Zaragoza, Quebradagrande and Caicedo communities.
Term: 6 months.
4. LEAD
Performing Organization or institution: The municipality, the CAR and private companies.
Interagency coordination required: The municipality, the CAR and private companies, the UNGRD, CLOPAD risk institution and CREPAD risk institution.
5. PRODUCTOS AND EXPECTED RESULTS
Generate a report which evaluated the alternatives and their respective approval criteria for future projects arise.
6. INDICATORS
Name operational: Number of structural and non-structural measure adopted for its implementation
Indicator definition: Number of measures implemented/Number of projected measures
7. ESTIMATED COST
Depends on the number of approved measures, however, estimated costs of the main measures used by some municipalities are: Implementation strategies of emergency in the community. $16366,61 dollars. Soil retaining structures, rocks containment, protection fillers slope counterweight and coated. Between $174031,64 and $436442, however those ones depend of many factors.

2.3 Cost-benefit analysis

After analyzing the cost of implementing of programs and actions formulated, it realized that the costs reach $ 2070 million dollars compared to $ 2140 million dollars already invested in actions formulated by the municipality to mitigate the risk, which financing sources could be resources from the National Fund for Disaster Risk Management and the state as well, therefore, it is more feasible invest in those programs which focused in reduce the level of risk and municipality socioeconomic vulnerability to continue investing in actions to mitigate the risk once the emergency occurred (Departamento Administrativo de la Presidencia de la República, 2013).

2.4 Multicriteria analysis

This last chapter was centralize to make a survey of experts from many national risk institutes through a survey (European Union, 2005), whose results were reflected in M- MACBETH software (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Bases Evaluation Technique) developed by Carlos Bana, Jean Marie De Corte and Jean Vansnick in 2005 (Bana, 2005), the results (figure 4) indicated that one of the major limitations of MPDRM methodology was that it does not specify the way to prioritize risk scenarios on the other hand, the structure analysis in the risk scenario characterization was one of its benefits.

Figure 4: Model results of the multicriteria analysis using M- MACBETH software.

3 Added value for the post 2015 framework for disaster risk reduction

The formulation of a Natural Risk Management Plan through the MPDRM methodology was focused on the five priorities for action within the framework of Hyogo since its application aims for risk reduction, plus is an action performed under a ruler law (Law 1523/ 2012 from Colombia), also is a planning tool focused on the implementation for action knowledge processes, reduction an disaster management, aims for a culture of disaster prevention in society as well as the joint actions aimed at institutional strengthening in the emergency preparation (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2006).

4 Conclusions

For more than twenty (20) years the municipality has been vulnerable to risk scenarios mainly by landslides and floods and the actions that has been make are related to mitigate the risk but not prevent, where 80% of the current population is vulnerable to the 3 risk scenarios analyzed.

Unfortunately Colombia does not have a standard methodology focused in prioritize natural risk scenarios; however with the implementation of the methodology of SEI SRE it was determined that the landslide risk scenario was the most critical, followed by floods and finally earthquakes.

The main causes in the risk scenarios by landslides and floods were by anthropic activities like deforestation for agriculture and livestock, the lack of population and building in high-risk areas, bimodal regime rainfall in the region and soil properties. In the case of earthquakes, the causes were mainly due to active faults present in the town, as well as soil properties which favor the intensity of these ones.

According with cost-benefit analysis, it was determined that the implementation of the programs and actions formulated in the natural risk management plan represented investments near of the ones that have been implemented during the last years focused in mitigate the risk, so investing in such actions will bring not only a reduction in the vulnerability of the population but will tend to a process of sustainable development in the municipality.

With respect to the multi-criteria evaluation, it defined that the main limitation of the methodology MPDRM lies in the way how to prioritize risk scenarios, also experts believe that the way how information is structured in characterization of risk scenarios was its main benefit. Moreover experts consider adapting various methodologies and software, to provide a better support in the preparation of documents for the adoption of policies associated to risk management, but they said that should still be cautious when adapting methodologies.

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Citation

Montién Tique, W. F., and Peña Guzmán, C. A. (2015): Formulation of a Natural Risk Management Plan to San Antonio Del Tequendama, Cundinamarca - Colombia. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 172-179, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.